Heat pump vs. furnace: what Canadians actually pay

People still type Canada Greener Homes Grant into Google and then call a contractor. The grant is closed. Natural Resources Canada stopped taking new applications in 2024, and 31 December 2025 was the last day to submit documents. The interest-free Greener Homes Loan closed in April 2026 when the funding was fully committed. If you did not already have an approval, that money is not sitting in your budget.

A furnace replacement and a heat pump are also not the same invoice with a different logo. One is a gas appliance swap. The other is a heating-and-cooling system that often wants more electrical capacity than the house has. This is planning information, not engineering or rebate advice. Confirm the current program on the administering site before anyone orders equipment.

What the equipment actually costs

Our furnace calculator is built to land near $5,500 all-in for a mid-range high-efficiency gas swap in the anchor region, against published 2026 Canadian figures of about $4,000 to $7,000 installed. Greater Vancouver runs higher. That is a straight replacement in the existing location, with a permit, not a rebuild of the ductwork.

A cold-climate air-source heat pump is the same trade as a central air conditioner, which is why it lives on our AC calculator as a system option rather than as a second furnace. That increment is a few thousand dollars over a plain air conditioner, not a few thousand over a furnace. A full heating conversion, new outdoor unit, indoor coil or heads, and electrical, commonly plans in the low-to-mid five figures before a panel upgrade. Dual-fuel systems that keep the gas furnace for the coldest weeks sit in between.

What replaced Greener Homes

Ontario's live program is Home Renovation Savings, run by Enbridge and Save on Energy. As of the program's published heat-pump stream, a home already on Enbridge gas gets $500 per ton for an eligible cold-climate air-source heat pump, capped at $2,000, or a flat $3,000 for ground source. A home heated by electricity, oil, propane, or wood gets $1,250 per ton up to $7,500 for air source, or $2,000 per ton up to $12,000 for ground source. Those figures move. Read the current page, use a participating contractor, and get written pre-approval before installation.

If you heat with oil, the federal Oil to Heat Pump Affordability program is a different door. Eligible lower-income households are not asked to pay out of pocket for the recommended retrofit. Delivery is through provincial partners, so the application is not a national web form you fill in after the install.

In B.C., CleanBC Better Homes still pays heat-pump rebates, but the Energy Savings Program is income-tested and, as of 2026, has assessed-value caps on the property. Pre-register, use a registered contractor, and do not treat a neighbour's 2023 rebate as yours.

The two numbers that blow a heat-pump quote

Electrical capacity. A 100-amp panel that already feeds a dryer, a range, and a future EV charger may not take a heat pump without a service upgrade. Our AC calculator's panel toggle is $2,600, which is a planning allowance for the electrician's panel work, not the Hydro invoice. If the utility has to trench or replace a transformer, that line is a different job.

Ducts and backup heat. A heat pump that cannot keep up at minus twenty without a plan is not a failed product. It is a house that needed dual-fuel, more heads, or insulation first. Envelope work is where some of the remaining rebates still are, and it has to be applied for before you start.

When a furnace is still the right call

The existing furnace is dead, winter is next week, and you do not have time for a rebate file. A licensed gas technician can often swap a like-for-like condensing furnace in a day or two, with a TSSA permit in Ontario and the equivalent elsewhere. That is a comfort decision, not an energy-policy decision.

It is also the right call when the rebate on a gas-heated home is $2,000 and the heat pump quote is $18,000 more than the furnace, with a panel upgrade behind it. Run both calculators, then look at the rebate page. Do not subtract a closed federal grant from a live quote.